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In journalism, we’re taught never to bury the lede. So here’s the lede: The LGBTQ+ community could be an important part of what happens in November’s midterm elections.

We keep hearing predictions of a possible Democratic wave that could change control of Congress and, if that happens, place a congressional check on President Donald Trump. But anyone who has been around politics for more than five minutes knows the old saying: A week is a lifetime in politics. Nothing is guaranteed until the votes are counted.

And Republicans certainly understand what is at stake. Across the country, there are battles over congressional district lines, early voting, mail voting and other election rules. Some of those changes are being challenged in court; others are being fought over in state legislatures.

But rather than simply complain about what others are doing, let’s ask a more important question: What role can the LGBTQ+ community play?

You might think we’re too small a community to matter. The numbers tell a different story.

Here’s where I get a little wonky.

For decades, LGBTQ+ voters have been one of the more reliably Democratic voting blocs in the country. In 2004, voters identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual represented about 4% of the electorate and voted 77% for Democrat John Kerry and 23% for Republican George W. Bush.

Look at the Democratic advantage among LGBTQ voters over the last two decades:

• 2004: Democrat +54
• 2008: Democrat +43
• 2012: Democrat +54
• 2016: Democrat +64
• 2020: Democrat +37
• 2024: Democrat +73

Those numbers haven’t moved in a straight line. But the larger story is unmistakable: LGBTQ+ voters have remained a heavily Democratic constituency.

And something else has happened that may be even more important: We’ve grown as a share of the electorate.

In 2004, just 4% of voters in the national exit poll identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual. By 2020, major national election surveys estimated LGBTQ+ voters at roughly 7% to 8% of the electorate.

Think about that for a moment. We aren’t simply a constituency that votes heavily for one party. We’re a constituency whose share of the voting population has grown substantially.

And that brings us to the races that could determine control of Congress. Many of the most competitive congressional races will be decided by relatively narrow margins. We don’t have reliable LGBTQ+ exit polling for every individual congressional district — the samples are simply too small, but we know LGBTQ voters are present in those districts.

We’ve already seen what that can mean. After the incredibly close 2020 presidential election, researchers examining AP VoteCast data estimated that LGBTQ+ voters strongly supported Joe Biden in several of the states that decided the election: approximately 89% in Arizona, 78% in Pennsylvania, 73% in Nevada and 70% in Wisconsin.

In other words, in a close election, our votes can matter. That’s the part of this story I don’t want anyone in our community to miss.

For most of my life, the LGBTQ+ community fought simply to have a voice in American politics. We fought to be acknowledged by candidates. We fought to have our issues included in party platforms. We fought against laws that criminalized us and treated us as second-class citizens. Today, our community possesses something generations before us could only dream about: electoral power.

But political power doesn’t come from population statistics or exit polls. It comes from actually casting ballots. So when November arrives, regardless of which candidates you support, remember the numbers. In a congressional district decided by a few percentage points, LGBTQ+ voters don’t have to be the majority to matter. We simply have to participate.

We’ve spent generations fighting for a place at the table of American democracy. Now that we have one, use it. Vote.

Mark Segal is an American journalist. He is the founder and publisher of Philadelphia Gay News and has won numerous journalism awards for his column “Mark My Words,” including best column by The National Newspaper Association, Suburban Newspaper Association and The Society of Professional Journalists.